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We need to stop pretending that the autonomous car is imminent

Discussion in 'Autonomous' started by jocker12, Sep 6, 2017.

  1. tomatopaste

    tomatopaste Well-Known Member

    Location:
    the west
    So is GM and Cruise. Watch these two video and not only will you be impressed but you'll probably wake up the whole house saying: HOLY ****!

    video 1.


    video 2.
     
  2. The Gift of Fish

    The Gift of Fish Well-Known Member

    Location:
    San Francisco
    This vehicle won't be the answer for rideshare, especially not in a built up urban area like San Francisco. This car based on the Bolt, which is an electric car with a 200 mile range.

    In San Francisco there are approximately 30,000 Uber vehicles. If they are replaced by electric SDC, then about half of these cars will be charging at any one time. Uber would need a lot big enough to charge 15,000 vehicles concurrently; that lot would be around half a mile wide and half a mile long. There are no vacant lots of that size within the city. There will be big enough spaces 10 or 20 miles outside the city, but there's that 200 mile range 0f the cars to consider. Maybe they would have several smaller lots of just a few thousand cars capacity each but even so, that's not going to happen in such a congested city.

    Uber would have to buy the land for their charging lot, and a 1/4 square mile piece of land (half a mile x half a mile, a.k.a. huge) 10 - 20 miles outside of San Francisco would run into 10s of millions, just for the land. Let's call it $50m. Then they build this charging lot, and buy and install 15,000 charging stations in it. Tesla says that each of its Supercharger stations costs $270,000 to build, with each station being able to charge 12 cars. Extrapolating this, a 15,000 capacity station would cost $337 million to build. There would, however be economies of scale, so let's call it $200 million. That's a total cost for the charging lot of $250 million.

    But wait, there's more, and this is the current (no pun intended) show stopper. Bolts have battery capacities of 60 Kwh. By my calculations, charging 15,000 Bolts at the same time would require approximately 330 megawatts of electricity, which happens to be more than the entire output of the local power plant in San Jose. Is California going to want to devote the entire production of the San Jose power plant to Uber? No. All those rich folk living in Silicon Valley would be most upset if their lights suddenly went out. So what would Uber do? Build its own power plant? Of course, sir. That will be an extra billion dollars to you, sir.

    But let's forget about practicalities/reality and assume that the Power Plant Fairy flies in one night and magics up a 330 megawatt power plant for Uber. We still haven't counted the cost of the cars.

    A regular Bolt with no SDC capacity costs around $40,000. An SDC may cost around $50,000 but there would be volume discounts, so call it $40,000. $40,000 x 30,000 vehicles = $1.2 billion. With the cost of the charging lot we're now at 1.45 billion dollars. And that's just for one city of 30,000 Uber vehicles. Uber has a fleet of around 600,000 cars in the US. If we extrapolate the cost for the 30,000 cars up to 600,000 then the setup cost, just to purchase the vehicles and to be able to charge them, would be $29 billion. There would be other associated costs, which would put the total somewhere around $35 billion.

    Keep in mind that Uber has, at this stage, only around $6 billion of investor cash left. And out of that money it'll continue to pay around $2 billion per year in operating losses.

    People talk about SDC and how wonderful the technology is, and it is. But people don't think about the huge expense required to incorporate this technology on a massive scale in terms of the cost of the vehicles themselves, the facilites required to run them, or the infrastructure improvements required. In the mean time, Uber can't even run its own Xchange fleet of Corollas and Elantras without losing millions of dollars. But I digress; SDC are coming, and they will eventually replace human drivers in rideshare. But to think that it will happen anytime soon, considering everything that's involved, is naive.
     
    Spotscat, heynow321 and Linux Geek like this.
  3. jocker12

    jocker12 Member

    Location:
    Washington
    Chris Urmson has a product to sell and he wants to sell, but the numbers he presents, if you really listen and analyze what he's saying, are not in his favor at all.

    Your denial is so strong, you don't even want to accept the reality presented by a top self drivable cars engineer, when suddenly people really pay attention to his words. I know you feel like a fish that swallowed a hook and now is desperately trying to escape.

    You trying to insult without reason is boring. When unaducated people run out of logic, they start vomiting insults. Make sure you don't choke on your own puke because corporations don't like already dead fish on their plates. Their job is to inflict gradual pain on the stupid fish and kill them slowly.

    And one more thing about your lack of education on car manufacturers industry. Do you know what General Motors is? It is funny how the moment they announced their interest for self drivable cars I knew for sure this game is doomed to fail. You could take a brake, go to the nearest library and for your curiosity read this - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsafe_at_Any_Speed

    As it stands in this article published on May 27, 2017 - GM is latest automaker accused of diesel emissions cheating - http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/25/news/companies/gm-emissions-cheating/index.html

    Also about GM's ignition cover up from 2014 - 124 dead people - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_ignition_switch_recalls

    Do you realize how ridiculous you look by getting excited about what GM is doing?
     
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2017
  4. tomatopaste

    tomatopaste Well-Known Member

    Location:
    the west
    This is the perfect car for San Francisco, given that most San Franciscans are smug granola eaters.



    Of the 30k Uber cars in SF, at most 1/3 are operating at the same time, 10k. The self driving taxi company, in this case GM, knows exactly where to stage the cars on a typical Thursday at 4pm. So they're twice as efficient and thus only need 5k cars.

    200 mile range is more than sufficient for one day. But you can also do a quit charge for 30 minutes and get another 90 miles. Cost per gallon for Uber drivers in SF is what, 3 bucks or more?. The cost per mile for GM Bolt will be a fraction of what Uber drivers are paying.

    The self driving taxi service will be owned and operated by GM/Cruise so I'm guessing GM will give GM quite a discount. Your monthly car payment on the Corolla is many times greater.

    Keep in mind Uber has nothing to do with this. GM would love nothing more than to put Uber out of business. GM says they can produce at least 200,000 Bolts per year. They will need five thousand to put Uber out of business in San Francisco.

    So when you said we should listen to Chris Urmson, what, that's no longer operable? It's all so confusing.
     
  5. jocker12

    jocker12 Member

    Location:
    Washington
    Again, you are not listening to what he's saying during the same discussion with the Recode journalist - "The company really wants to make a product. I believe that deeply. There's very little value in working on technology if you don’t get it out there and get it helping people."

    Of course is confusing because you cannot believe he is so honest about this dirty game they are playing. Acknowledging how the statistics of 1 death in 5 to 10 thousand years are correct and also admitting how their main objective as a company is solely to sell their product (because there is no real safety issue) is an eye opener.
     

  6. heynow321

    heynow321 Well-Known Member

    Location:
    redmond
    don't underestimate the power of cognitive dissonance. guys like ramz and tomato suffer greatly from it.

    you should read up on seattle's experiment with self cleaning public toilets from around 10 years ago. they were so disgusting and vandalized that even the homeless stopped using them.

    http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/seattles-5-million-automated-public-toilets-sold-for-12000/

    The high-tech public toilets, with sanitizing water jets and automatic doors, were installed in 2004 to accommodate tourists and transients in Pioneer Square, Capitol Hill, the central waterfront, Pike Place Market and the Chinatown International District. But the city canceled its contract this spring after the commodes became filthy hide-outs for drug use and prostitution.


    yeah...people are wonderful and always behave in a good manner when not being supervised or dealing with the threat of retaliation. must be part of your fake reality that you live in.
     
    jocker12 likes this.
  7. tomatopaste

    tomatopaste Well-Known Member

    Location:
    the west
    How do you manage to get out of bed in the morning knowing all these evil capitalists are out to get you?
     
  8. The Gift of Fish

    The Gift of Fish Well-Known Member

    Location:
    San Francisco
    Drivers also know where to be on a typical Thursday at 4pm. GM won't get any efficiency gains out of that.

    I was wondering if you would bring up utilization. Yes, not all human Ubers are in use concurrently. But neither will the SDC be. As above, charging stations capable of charging thousands of cars will not be located in San Francisco. Call it a 15 mile ride over to East Bay or South Bay to charge, and 15 miles back - a quick charge to get just another 90 miles wouldn't do much good. Just as it is most efficient for us to fill our cars with gas instead of stopping every 90 miles, so it will be most efficient when SDC fill up completely. For that reason, the 30,000 cars does not go down to 10,000. Let's say 20,000.

    But, the range restrictions will mean that not all SDC cars can take all rides. The ride allocation software will have to pass over cars which are running low on battery and allocate longer trips only to cars with enough battery to do the trip and then get to a charging station, plus keep a little power in reserve. So, more cars are required, and the number of cars required goes back up to 30,000.
     
  9. tomatopaste

    tomatopaste Well-Known Member

    Location:
    the west
    They'll have 500 plugless charging stations in the city as well (see video). Also its range is 238 not 200. With a 30 minutes quick charge in the city you're at 328. I know you want range to be an issue but it's just not.

    No way in H do human drivers have anything close to the info the self driving taxi company will have. Surge becomes moot with SD taxis. We're still at 5k cars needed.

    Battery technology is advancing rapidly and this is why car companies are moving more and more to ev's.

     
  10. The Gift of Fish

    The Gift of Fish Well-Known Member

    Location:
    San Francisco
    (1) That's manufacturer claimed range for a Bolt, and (2) The Bolt has no electrical load from SDC sensors, lasers, servo motors etc. 200 miles is therefore a very generous estimate of range.
    It's neither an issue or a non-issue. It is what it is - a shorter EV range than gas cars, combined with a one hour charge time vs 5 minute tank-up, combined with the need to go to remote out-of-city charging stations simply means that more EV cars will be required than if these limitations did not exist. Is this good or bad? It's great if you're a GM assembly line worker. For others, maybe not so much.
    Obvious; SDC will not require incentivization. o_O However, upfront pricing will still gouge pax when there are more requests than available cars.
    Lol, no.... each SDC will not replace six human driven cars, for the reasons mentioned. Lower range, longer recharge time, lack of sufficient nearby charging capacity etc etc. Even if SDC replaced half of the human Uber cars, you still haven't explained how the extra demand on the electrical grid is going to be satisfied, or who is going to pay for that, or how long it will take to upgrade the grid infrastrucure. Many power companies say that we are close to blackout conditions in many areas, yet suddenly we're going to be able to plug in millions of electric cars and drain thousands of extra gigawatt hours from the grid? Nope. It will happen, eventually, but it'll take quite a few years.
    Advances in battery technology facilitate a move to EV, but that is not the reason why EV is currently trending.
     
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2017
  11. tomatopaste

    tomatopaste Well-Known Member

    Location:
    the west
    The cars will be driven optimally by computers. It'll be 250 in SDC mode.

    Half of Uber's 30k drivers only drive 3 times a month. They need 30k drivers only because it's barely a job to begin with. 5k full time cars is all they need. Cars are charged at night. And it's only 5k.
     
  12. empresstabitha

    empresstabitha Well-Known Member

    Location:
    SAN FRANCISCO
    Because there are over 3 million people in the US and over 7 billion in the world. Trust me humanity is safe.

    Haha I've seen this car in SF and you know what it kept stopping at a green light because it was confused by other cars and pedestrians
     
  13. tohunt4me

    tohunt4me Well-Known Member

    Location:
    new orleans , la.
    Google also invests HEAVILY in Transhumanism.
    Google D.A.R.P.A. IS BIG BROTHER.

    Like uber Navigation.
    Pin drop is between 800 to 1500 lost avenue.
    Good Luck.

    Well
    That settles it !
    We suck all the air out of Robo cars once passengers are Locked in !

    Population control.
    Nature has Lions.
    We have Cars.

    Is THIS what be brought G.M. out of Bankruptcy to do !?!?

    SCREW AMERICANS OUT OF JOBS AND RIGHTS ?
    Should have SOLD THEIR ASSETS AT AUCTION !
     
  14. tomatopaste

    tomatopaste Well-Known Member

    Location:
    the west
    If you replace smart phones with carrier pigeons, Uber Amish could work.
    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0f/Lancaster_County_Amish_03.jpg
     
  15. jocker12

    jocker12 Member

    Location:
    Washington
    Nobody here is interested in what you ask yourself while staring at your reflection in the mirror.
     
  16. The Gift of Fish

    The Gift of Fish Well-Known Member

    Location:
    San Francisco
    Nope. Charging once per night would only give 1/2 a day's operation. Just for that reason you'd be back up to 10,000 cars.

    Nope.
     
  17. tomatopaste

    tomatopaste Well-Known Member

    Location:
    the west
    Correct. But you can get 160 miles with 1 hr fast charge. 2 fast charges in 24 hrs gives you 320 mile daily range. For the SF fleet, 5k cars, you only need a few hundred fast charging stations.
     
  18. The Gift of Fish

    The Gift of Fish Well-Known Member

    Location:
    San Francisco
    So now you're not saying they would be charged just at night. You sound a bit confused :rolleyes:
     
  19. tomatopaste

    tomatopaste Well-Known Member

    Location:
    the west
    I will concede your point that the sensors ect will draw more power if you will concede my brilliant point that the cars will be driven optimally by computers. However you also have to concede fast charging makes this whole discussion moot.

    No, they will still be charged at night but not the slow charge that only gives them a half charge. They'd use the fast charge and start out with the full 238 mile range. Then a 1 hour fast charge in the city during the day for another 160. Total daily range: 398. And no human interaction required.
     
  20. heynow321

    heynow321 Well-Known Member

    Location:
    redmond

    I slowed down that video to normal speed and picked apart all the **** ups it made. the thing can't make rights on reds. it slows down and gets confused in the middle of the road when someone comes up behind it. it's way too cautious (would slow down traffic enormously). etc.

    the thing is a joke.


    Here's the post:

    I'd suggest everyone watch this video at half speed so you can really see how many times this thing &%$@!*s up or takes actions that would cause massive slowdowns.

    1:01 - the car stalls and can't seem to figure out what the parked car on the right is doing despite having plenty of room to get by on the left. do **** like this during rush hr and it will cause major back ups.

    1:30 - the car doesn't choose to go around a left turning car despite having plenty of room to do so, will cause back ups and be incredibly frustrating for passengers.

    1:52 - the car waits for the light to cycle to turn right instead of turning right on a red despite having opportunities to do so. that will piss off passengers and further increase traffic.

    2:48 - the car just stops in the middle of the road and seems to be confused by the car on the left despite having open road in front of it. awesome for traffic and passengers.

    2:54 - "stop 2" the car just blocks the lane despite having plenty of room to pull over 10 feet in front of it. Other drivers will love that!

    3:00 - another missed opportunity to turn right safely but instead it just sits there.

    3:26 - another botched right turn despite having plenty of room.

    4:09 - the thing just stops in the middle of a wide open road with nothing blocking it! how the &%$@!* is that safe?

    4:00 - 4:30 - the thing is not accelerating nearly as fast as the rest of traffic allowing a ton of cars to get in front of it with the huge gaps it's creating. Hope passengers have all the time in the world to get to where they're going.

    4:47 - the thing just stops in the middle of the lane before a green light with no obstructions. again, how safe.

    5:25 - "stop 3" blocks the lane again despite having an open parking spot right in front of it.

    5:46 - plenty of room to move forward but it decides to stop and block the lane while a car in front is turning left.

    6:11 - could have easily made the light safely, chose to stop. how frustrating for a potential passenger.

    8:01 - the thing is obviously confused by the cars around it and slows down despite having wide open road in front of it allowing more cars to jump in front of it. Sure hope these passengers aren't in a hurry.

    8:15 - unable to make a right on the red light despite having a huge opportunity to do so. guess we just aren't turning right on reds anymore.

    8:27 - "stop 5" blocks the lane again despite having a parking spot RIGHT next to it that any human could have easily pulled into.
     
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2017
    Spotscat likes this.

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