Slightly concerned for our Uber driver economy once July 31st rolls around...

Young Kim

Well-Known Member
I often write really long posts, so I'll keep this one relatively short...

While I am still driving, I admit to a modicum of worry once the July 31st day comes. That is when in the U.S. the $600 Federal assistance is officially stopped. And therein lies the problem. There is a lot of talk about extending it. The issue is that if Congress votes to stop the $600/week, then consumption will drop, and precipitously. I found this to be correlated because when they started the $600/week, I saw a jump in ride requests, here in Chicago, IL USA. I also witnessed a dramatic increase in UberEats, at least in my personal experience.

Now, if they DO extend it, then I posit that many employers (with greater reduced demand from consumers), may not be able to hire anyone because they cannot pay the required wage to influence workers to come back. This could result in businesses going under... And thus there will be impacts on our driver earnings.

The fear I have is that the U.S. Federal government may have painted themselves into a corner. Either option could have concomitant negative effects. I do not question that it was the right thing to do politically and on a humanitarian basis, because I recall that many people were telling me (and still do) that they were really suffering before the $600/week add on.

The stock market seems to be already pricing in a "V" shaped recovery. The SPY which I follow (The S&P 500 exchange traded fund), closed at 303.53 today, and we are within sight of new all time highs. I am just expressing concern about the upcoming day on July 31st. I hope thoughtful consideration is made. I am very very happy so many people are getting it, because I hear from passengers how much they needed it... but when if/when it is taken away, we could have a measurable decrease in ride requests/food deliveries, and another big drop in world equities.
 

ColdRider

Well-Known Member
I know people want the government aid extended but if states start to open, then people should return to work and take precautions.

The shutdown has already caused businesses to permanently close their doors and the jobs lost will be permanent. Imagine how many more businesses will close and how many more jobs will be permanently lost if the shutdown continues.
 

Young Kim

Well-Known Member
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I know people want the government aid extended but if states start to open, then people should return to work and take precautions.

The shutdown has already caused businesses to permanently close their doors and the jobs lost will be permanent. Imagine how many more businesses will close and how many more jobs will be permanently lost if the shutdown continues.
Agreed with needing to be very cautious... The U.S. government has long past the point where more borrowing can lead to a "GDP multiplier" effect. Many economic studies have shown that once a government's debt exceeds 90% of GDP, it leads to prolonged depressed GDP growth for many years.

This is because debt can be generally divided into 2 categories, productive and unproductive. Productive debt is debt incurred which can repay principal and interest. Unproductive debt is usually consumptive debt and is needed for everyday living expenses. Also, debt can be considered "future consumption brought forward to the present day".

The trillions needed to continue to pay federal government debts past July 31st could be a severe drag on economic growth. This is because the federal government will be forced to extract more currency from the economy to service it. This leads to less Gross Domestic Savings, which then leads to less investment, investing, and a decline in productivity growth.

However, there is an argument that struggling Americans may demand an extension, especially if they don't have savings or a job lined up. Very tough predicament.
 

SOLA-RAH

Well-Known Member
I often write really long posts, so I'll keep this one relatively short...

While I am still driving, I admit to a modicum of worry once the July 31st day comes. That is when in the U.S. the $600 Federal assistance is officially stopped. And therein lies the problem. There is a lot of talk about extending it. The issue is that if Congress votes to stop the $600/week, then consumption will drop, and precipitously. I found this to be correlated because when they started the $600/week, I saw a jump in ride requests, here in Chicago, IL USA. I also witnessed a dramatic increase in UberEats, at least in my personal experience.

Now, if they DO extend it, then I posit that many employers (with greater reduced demand from consumers), may not be able to hire anyone because they cannot pay the required wage to influence workers to come back. This could result in businesses going under... And thus there will be impacts on our driver earnings.

The fear I have is that the U.S. Federal government may have painted themselves into a corner. Either option could have concomitant negative effects. I do not question that it was the right thing to do politically and on a humanitarian basis, because I recall that many people were telling me (and still do) that they were really suffering before the $600/week add on.

The stock market seems to be already pricing in a "V" shaped recovery. The SPY which I follow (The S&P 500 exchange traded fund), closed at 303.53 today, and we are within sight of new all time highs. I am just expressing concern about the upcoming day on July 31st. I hope thoughtful consideration is made. I am very very happy so many people are getting it, because I hear from passengers how much they needed it... but when if/when it is taken away, we could have a measurable decrease in ride requests/food deliveries, and another big drop in world equities.
“I am very very happy so many people are getting it, because I hear from passengers how much they needed it... but when if/when it is taken away, we could have a measurable decrease in ride requests/food deliveries...”
This statement is exactly why the $600 is guaranteed to end July 31st. When you have no job and are having to rely on the U.S. taxpayer for spending money, taking an uber is a luxury not a necessity. The average person is gonna treat PUA & unemployment the exact same way they treated their paycheck...by blowing it on trivialities as fast as possible. Instead of making every dollar count to weather these hard times, they’ll spend free money even faster. The government “supporting” the people is about the best injection a troubled economy can get.

Uber will boom from July 3rd-July 31st because uber drivers still (or should) be sitting at home. Why work hard when you can get $800+/week for doing nothing? And I can’t blame them because they’ll be penalized for driving and earning more than a few hundred bucks a week.
On July 31st the music stops, and the free money ends. And all these unemployed folks go from treading water to flat broke. And I just don’t see them flooding in to become uber drivers.
Meanwhile the general (employed) public is gonna be over all of this nonsense by then and the demand will be there. The stock market has almost fully recovered and heavy demand is pent up among people who are still working and getting paid. While at the bottom, ~30million people will be competing for the ~20million jobs that eventually come back. What happens after that is anyone’s guess.
 

sellkatsell44

Well-Known Member
America is not close to being fully open 🤔
35M+ people unemployed 🤔
We are in the middle of a Pandemic 🤔
And the market is almost fully recovered? 😒
Hum the fear of missing out is stronger than logic...
35M+ includes a ton of furloughed as well as people who will have jobs once America is opened.

market is “fully recovered” because thanks to the cares act people have extra money in their pockets and they’re putting it in the market. $600/week on top of unemployment? STOCK MARKET. $1200/$2400 stimulus check? STOCK MARKET. RMD cancelled? STOCK MARKET.
 

Clint Torres

Well-Known Member
35M+ includes a ton of furloughed as well as people who will have jobs once America is opened.

market is “fully recovered” because thanks to the cares act people have extra money in their pockets and they’re putting it in the market. $600/week on top of unemployment? STOCK MARKET. $1200/$2400 stimulus check? STOCK MARKET. RMD cancelled? STOCK MARKET.
like @sellkatsell44 what is the opposite of street smart cause that’s what I want to sayevery time I read your posts. Mad insightful non useful things
 

PopcornEater

Active Member
35M+ includes a ton of furloughed as well as people who will have jobs once America is opened.

market is “fully recovered” because thanks to the cares act people have extra money in their pockets and they’re putting it in the market. $600/week on top of unemployment? STOCK MARKET. $1200/$2400 stimulus check? STOCK MARKET. RMD cancelled? STOCK MARKET.
Lol 😆 there is no way the economy is healthy, whales can pump the market and make it look good though...
 

mbd

Well-Known Member
Don’t worry , just go to LA right now and start looting Target. Get whatever you need. :thumbup:
 

SHalester

Well-Known Member
Nearly Half of Americans Aren’t Investing
When asked where they are currently investing or saving their money, over 47% of respondents said they weren’t taking advantage of any of the following investments:

  • Stocks (not including retirement accounts)
  • Bonds (not including retirement accounts)
  • Mutual funds (not including retirement accounts)
  • Exchange-traded funds, aka ETFs (not including retirement accounts)
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Real estate
  • Individual retirement account (including Roth IRAs)
  • 401(k)
  • Deposit accounts (savings, checking, etc.)

Pretty sure the vast majority of folks getting any type of UI use it to pay rent/mortgage, food, you know recurring monthly bills. sheesh.
 

Daisey77

Well-Known Member
The drivers who are refusing to work or are planning on waiting till the last minute to come back to work, my find themselves in trouble sooner than July 31st. Just because it was approved to pay out till July 31st doesn't mean they have to pay out until then. There are still certain guidelines that we have to qualify under. There are specific guidelines in place regarding the Pua and the other three Federal programs. Those guidelines include who is able to be approved as well as when someone is no longer eligible. Based on the reasons listed, once the social distancing and stay-at-home orders start getting lifted, as they are now, there's going to be a large number of drivers who will no longer qualify. We've already had new stories here talking about it. The title to one story was here soon unemployment is going to have the tough job of deciding who gets to stay on and who loses their benefits. Granted a lot of us don't even have our official approval because they are so backlogged but just becaget booted off now doesn't mean they won't come after that money later. When we certify every week we have to answer the question if we worked. For those who answer no, here pretty soon that's going to translate into refusing to work. Pandemic or not refusing to work isn't considered an acceptable reason to stay on unemployment. In fact I hear they've announced numerous times that refusing to work out of fear of coronavirus is not a valid reason. Somehow they all have it in their heads that they are set with Benefits no matter what until July 31st and that may not be the case.

Also thinking long-term, we were just entering our busy months here when this started. We're going to have our winter slumps for 15 months. We were just about to come out of our worst couple months as drivers here in Denver. Then this hit and it's going to take us right back into the next winter slump. There's going to be no summer pop this year. That's when we put money aside for tires maintenance and Bill's to get us through the winter. So come July 31st a better be able to survive on their weekly benefit or hope to God Uber income is enough to pay all their bills. It might finally hit them but they should have been working as well during this but that's their problem
 

PopcornEater

Active Member
Nah,

from you it just sounds like a fart.

people here be investing when they haven’t before, we’ve seen that. Google search if you haven’t been back that long.



Exactly, but here’s the thing.

more retirement accounts (for self directing) was opened in March and April then last year total.

people are not taking their RMDs and they’re large amounts, this much I can tell you.

My view is from inside, and I’m telling you—rich people don’t need to take their RMDs, they’re keeping their investments and rebalancing, selling their highs and buying the potentials at their lows.

could go on but eh.

believe what you will.
🤔 What you’re saying doesn’t make sense..
There is too much volatility in the market plus the economy is shit...
30% down, 20% up within 2-3 month..
Is this bitcoin?
 

mbd

Well-Known Member
🤔 What you’re saying doesn’t make sense..
There is too much volatility in the market plus the economy is shit...
30% down, 20% up within 2-3 month..
Is this bitcoin?
Feds behind the mkt pump, and they need to do that . People’s habits change when Dow is at 26 k vs 15k. People go nuts at 15k.:thumbup: 401k, pension funds etc etc . State of California needs a high valuation stock mkt.
Oracle of Omaha is sitting with high cash, but mkt already up from 18k to 25.5k. Ackman sold his Berkshire shares for a quick 20% gain .
 
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SHalester

Well-Known Member
Most people are either holding on or buying in where before they had money in savings.
You are funny. Please go google how many people could pay a $400 emergency bill. Most American's don't invest outside a 401k or like; that is the simple truth. Your 'inside' knowledge has biased you to kinda forget what happens outside that bubble. :rolleyes:
 

PopcornEater

Active Member
Did you not notice my “”s?

i am not saying the market recovered recovered but certainly the numbers are there (hmmm I wonder how if we were to go with what’s his names survey of who knows how many sample size) because people are investing or Holding on tight.

what is it that I’m saying that doesn’t make sense?
I’ll like to meet a rich person with a stock broker that let his client hold tight while a free fall 😂
People had inside info on the market and when to sell...
Of course that info doesn’t come to me or you 🙃
 
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