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How Much Will Autonomous Vehicles Cost?

Maven

Well-Known Member
Very early models of autonomous cars may cost six figures.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-autonomous-exclusive-idUSKBN15W283

However, like most technology, the price will drop rapidly. It's estimated that the additional cost for autonomous technology will add between $7,000 and $10,000 to the price of a car in 2025. But that will drop down to around $3,000 by 2035, according to IHS.

http://cityobservatory.org/how-much-will-autonomous-vehicles-cost/
http://cityobservatory.org/how-much-will-autonomous-vehicles-cost/
A significant percentage of the public is ready to buy autonomous cars.
In a recent poll 25% said they would absolutely ride in an SDC and 50% said they might.
A strong publicity campaign will increase the acceptance rate.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2016/08/30/how-self-driving-cars-can-gain-public-acceptance/#1191d7aa7117

The price of autonomous Trucks will be higher, as they are today, but will likely drop in a manner similar to the prices of autonomous cars.

At what point would you buy a (presumably) safer autonomous car for your teenage son or daughter who has just got their drivers license?
 

RamzFanz

Well-Known Member
I'd rather my kid learn to drive in a safe manner rather than having him being incapable and reliant on glitchy hackable software
I used to have a contractor who refused to wear his seatbelt because he was onced saved in an accident by being ejected from his car through the windshield before the driver compartment was crushed. You sound like him.

The very best human driver in the world could never be as safe as fully mature SDCs. It's impossible. You can't know what they will know, sense what they can sense, make decisions as fast, or preplan reactions to almost every possible scenario on the fly.
 
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Maven

Well-Known Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #4
The very best human driver in the world could never be as safe as fully mature SDCs. It's impossible. You can't know what they will know, sense what they can sense, make decisions as fast, or preplan reactions to almost every possible scenario on the fly.
I mostly agree with you, but
  • It will be awhile after introduction (level 3 or 4) before autonomous cars become "fully mature" (level 5).
  • It might be good for new drivers not to be fully dependent on the automation and to know how to drive in an emergency.
Looking farther into the future, once autonomous cars become "fully mature" and usage is near 100%, highway speed limits might gradually increase until it is impossible for most human drivers to handle the new driving environment safely.
 

Jermin8r89

Well-Known Member
The very best human driver in the world could never be as safe as fully mature SDCs. It's impossible. You can't know what they will know, sense what they can sense, make decisions as fast, or preplan reactions to almost every possible scenario on the fly
Yea u can say that its "safer". Staying at home is safer too. U wana look at something look at new orleans. The city is liveing under sea level surrounded by water with not so sturdy dykes. Katrina comes floods whole city and many people die. Those people who come back r assumeing they could still be safe. If i was there after katrina never would go back.

What ive learned is learn at something dont always assume haveing people or other things "assume" they will do ur job.

My dad tells me "The time u stop wanting to grow is the time u maze well be dead"

If u rely on system to do everything for u u have just become a pond on the chessboard
 

heynow321

Well-Known Member
I used to have a contractor who refused to wear his seatbelt because he was onced saved in an accident by being ejected from his car through the windshield before the driver compartment was crushed. You sound like him.

The very best human driver in the world could never be as safe as fully mature SDCs. It's impossible. You can't know what they will know, sense what they can sense, make decisions as fast, or preplan reactions to almost every possible scenario on the fly.
Again, you don't understand statistics. There is no proof they're safer than people: http://www.rand.org/news/press/2016/04/12.html

Autonomous vehicles would have to be driven hundreds of millions of miles and, under some scenarios, hundreds of billions of miles to create enough data to clearly demonstrate their safety, according to a new RAND report.

Under even the most-aggressive test driving assumptions, it would take existing fleets of autonomous vehicles tens and even hundreds of years to log sufficient miles to adequately assess the safety of the vehicles when compared to human-driven vehicles, according to the analysis.

However, researchers acknowledge autonomous vehicles may not eliminate all crashes, and the safety of human drivers is a critical benchmark against which to compare the safety of autonomous vehicles.

Although the total number of crashes, injuries and fatalities from human drivers is high, the rate of these failures is low in comparison with the number of miles that people drive. Americans drive nearly 3 trillion miles every year, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. In 2013, there were 2.3 million injuries reported, which is a failure rate of 77 injuries per 100 million miles driven. The related 32,719 fatalities correspond to a failure rate of about 1 fatality per 100 million miles driven.

“The most autonomous miles any developer has logged are about 1.3 million, and that took several years. This is important data, but it does not come close to the level of driving that is needed to calculate safety rates,” said Susan M. Paddock, co-author of the study and senior statistician at RAND. “Even if autonomous vehicle fleets are driven 10 million miles, one still would not be able to draw statistical conclusions about safety and reliability.”


Sorry bud, you'll be long gone before (and your kids driving themselves around still) any "safety" gains will be realized by autonomous technology.


I'm sure your local community college can offer you some classes on statistics to clear up your misunderstanding.
 

Jermin8r89

Well-Known Member
Again, you don't understand statistics. There is no proof they're safer than people: http://www.rand.org/news/press/2016/04/12.html

Autonomous vehicles would have to be driven hundreds of millions of miles and, under some scenarios, hundreds of billions of miles to create enough data to clearly demonstrate their safety, according to a new RAND report.

Under even the most-aggressive test driving assumptions, it would take existing fleets of autonomous vehicles tens and even hundreds of years to log sufficient miles to adequately assess the safety of the vehicles when compared to human-driven vehicles, according to the analysis.

However, researchers acknowledge autonomous vehicles may not eliminate all crashes, and the safety of human drivers is a critical benchmark against which to compare the safety of autonomous vehicles.

Although the total number of crashes, injuries and fatalities from human drivers is high, the rate of these failures is low in comparison with the number of miles that people drive. Americans drive nearly 3 trillion miles every year, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. In 2013, there were 2.3 million injuries reported, which is a failure rate of 77 injuries per 100 million miles driven. The related 32,719 fatalities correspond to a failure rate of about 1 fatality per 100 million miles driven.

“The most autonomous miles any developer has logged are about 1.3 million, and that took several years. This is important data, but it does not come close to the level of driving that is needed to calculate safety rates,” said Susan M. Paddock, co-author of the study and senior statistician at RAND. “Even if autonomous vehicle fleets are driven 10 million miles, one still would not be able to draw statistical conclusions about safety and reliability.”


Sorry bud, you'll be long gone before (and your kids driving themselves around still) any "safety" gains will be realized by autonomous technology.


I'm sure your local community college can offer you some classes on statistics to clear up your misunderstanding.
Exactly. The public aint ready yet. We just got smartphones about 10 years ago this much advancement in human time is still alot go take in. They said 3d was gonna be huge like 5 years ago when the HTC evo 3d phone came out but was a bust. Its alot of publicity and thats it. If they do this within next 5 years its gonna start ww3. The out reach of effect to SDVs will be huge. For what? "Weeee my car can drive itself" it wont be yours though
 

ABC123DEF

Well-Known Member
Sometimes I don't know what the break-neck speed for all this tech junk is. It's like we're rushing to have a world overrun by machines and robots so we can sit on our duffs and not have to lift a finger or use any brain cells for anything. I don't think any of this really makes the world a better place. Pump the breaks a little and let it happen when it happens...even if it's 100 years from now.
 

Jermin8r89

Well-Known Member
Sometimes I don't know what the break-neck speed for all this tech junk is. It's like we're rushing to have a world overrun by machines and robots so we can sit on our duffs and not have to lift a finger or use any brain cells for anything. I don't think any of this really makes the world a better place. Pump the breaks a little and let it happen when it happens...even if it's 100 years from now.
Even people in silicon valley fear their AI will stir upriseing between the rich and poor as middle class is getting smaller and smaller. U would think if ur product would cause destruction y do it in the first place? Theres lots if other things then SDVs. Leave that alone and make cars that can go under water. Homes and entertainment under surface of ocean would be sick. Thats how u can keep freedom and expand a hydro industrial world
 

RamzFanz

Well-Known Member
Again, you don't understand statistics. There is no proof they're safer than people
I see you're clutching at straws as I clearly said fully mature SDCs.

Your article is wildly outdated on number of miles driven. Another problem they have is that simulator miles are just as valid as real world because they came from real world miles and the cars perceive the sensor data as real world. Waymo runs 3,000,000 simulator miles a day.

Sorry bud, you'll be long gone before (and your kids driving themselves around still) any "safety" gains will be realized by autonomous technology.
You don't have to prove safety gains statistically to realize them. That's like saying we shouldn't have started using seatbelts or airbags because of a lack of statistics. Today, we can statistically prove they are safer. When we introduced them, it was hypothesized off testing. Sound familiar?

The testing centers that will approve them for road readiness are already being built.
 

Maven

Well-Known Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #11
Let me tell you a short story. A guy running from an enraged bear turns to his buddy and gasps, "Gotta outrun the bear!" His buddy replies, "No! Just gotta outrun you!" The moral in this case is that SDCs do not need to be perfect, just better than the "average human driver".

... There is no proof they're safer than people ...
True today. That will steadily change until it's no longer true.

...Autonomous vehicles would have to be driven hundreds of millions of miles and, under some scenarios, hundreds of billions of miles to create enough data to clearly demonstrate their safety, according to a new RAND report.
Under even the most-aggressive test driving assumptions, it would take existing fleets of autonomous vehicles tens and even hundreds of years to log sufficient miles to adequately assess the safety of the vehicles when compared to human-driven vehicles, according to the analysis...
Unnecessary! 90%+ of the analysis will use simulations, like RamzFanz said. Just enough will be in the real world to convince most people.

...However, researchers acknowledge autonomous vehicles may not eliminate all crashes, and the safety of human drivers is a critical benchmark against which to compare the safety of autonomous vehicles. Although the total number of crashes, injuries and fatalities from human drivers is high, the rate of these failures is low in comparison with the number of miles that people drive. Americans drive nearly 3 trillion miles every year, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. In 2013, there were 2.3 million injuries reported, which is a failure rate of 77 injuries per 100 million miles driven. The related 32,719 fatalities correspond to a failure rate of about 1 fatality per 100 million miles driven.
Irreverent. See the beginning of this post.

...Sorry bud, you'll be long gone before (and your kids driving themselves around still) any "safety" gains will be realized by autonomous technology...
Current industry estimates of 5-10 years may be over optimistic, but I'm confident that they're closer than yours. Time will tell which of us is correct.
 
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