Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model

NoPool4Me

Well-Known Member

Everyone may be back to work sooner than anticipated. It seems that with the revised modeling, the loose social distancing we've done in US and UK may have averted the Italian and Spanish fiasco. The loose social distancing coupled with flights from China shut down by Trump in late December may have allowed us to dodge the bullet so to speak. I'll still lay low for another month to see how it works out.

Edit to add: I started poking around a bit more after a video conference with my dr due to my cough and sore throat. He seems to think I probably have covid, but, not concerned enough to bring me in for testing. Gave me a link for a screener to see if the state would give me their free tests. Seems I'm not at high risk since I don't have high blood pressure, diabetes or obesity.
 
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NoPool4Me

Well-Known Member
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  • #4
You do realize you're using a tabloid as your source, right...?

Also, we haven't avoided the "Italian and Spanish fiasco". Google NYC.
It will take time to see how this works out. The NYC issue was started with a super spreader that was in a community outside of NYC that gave covid to 103 people. He also went to his office in NYC and his synogogue. On top of that, the orthodox community didn't shut down their schools.

Time will tell how bad this gets in the rest of the states. I'm taking the cautious side and remaining in self isolation for another month.

I also had a teleconference with my md yesterday and he says he believes it has already spread in most of our communities. I'm not saying whether or not to break quarantine. Just letting people know the original modeling may have been done incorrectly.
 

BigRedDriver

Well-Known Member

Everyone may be back to work sooner than anticipated. It seems that with the revised modeling, the loose social distancing we've done in US and UK may have averted the Italian and Spanish fiasco. The loose social distancing coupled with flights from China shut down by Trump in late December may have allowed us to dodge the bullet so to speak. I'll still lay low for another month to see how it works out.
I would have posted this directly from the original source, but it’s behind a paywall:


Looks like more and more experts are expressing their concerns over the misleading numbers making this appear worse than it may actually be.
 

Valar Dohaeris

Well-Known Member
Considering we are at a 1000 US deaths 2-3 weeks into this, those posters who all along have been saying millions of Americans will die should be shot, IMO.

Logical people have been saying all along that this is dangerous and we should social distance, but this will not kill millions of Americans because we aren't Italy. We were called naysayers and told "just you wait". That was two weeks ago. The gloom & doomers have gotten quieter and quieter in the past few days.
 
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IR12

Well-Known Member
I would have posted this directly from the original source, but it’s behind a paywall:


Looks like more and more experts are expressing their concerns over the misleading numbers making this appear worse than it may actually be.
Stanford University latest. Excellent article by multiple experts from last night & shared on our local news stations.

 

BigRedDriver

Well-Known Member
Considering we are at a 1000 US deaths 2-3 weeks into this, those posters who all along have been saying millions of Americans will die should be shot, IMO.

Logical people have been saying all along that this is dangerous and we should social distance, but this will not millions of Americans because we aren't Italy. We were called naysayers and told "just you wait". That was two weeks ago. The gloom & doomers have gotten quieter and quieter in the past few days.
It concerns me that, given the numbers that seemed apparent from the start to be highly overstated, why?

I think we can all look at the recent stimulus bill and start to see the reasons.

Who needs to vote on controversial funding when you can lump it into this thing. Possible?
 

JohnnyBravo836

Well-Known Member
Considering we are at a 1000 US deaths 2-3 weeks into this, those posters who all along have been saying millions of Americans will die should be shot, IMO.
No one said that: they said that millions of Americans would die if no steps were taken to prevent the spread. Remedial reading might be suggested, but there are limitations to what you expect.
 
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BigRedDriver

Well-Known Member
No one said that: they said that millions of Americans would die if no steps were taken to prevent the spread. Remedial reading might be suggested, but there are limitations to what you expect.
Which, like I have been saying all along and WHY THOSE NUMBERS SHOULD NOT BE USED TO JUSTIFY OUR RESPONSE. Never, in the history of mankind, do we DO NOTHING.

Good lord.
 

Wolfgang Faust

Well-Known Member
It concerns me that, given the numbers that seemed apparent from the start to be highly overstated, why?

I think we can all look at the recent stimulus bill and start to see the reasons.

Who needs to vote on controversial funding when you can lump it into this thing. Possible?
Democrats shoved $350 million for illegal aliens in there.
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No one said that, Baboon Breath: they said that millions of Americans would die if no steps were taken to prevent the spread. Remedial reading might be suggested, but there are limitations to what you expect.
Nice.
Great time for Random Acts Of Hostility

Be proud
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Good thing Trump wants to kill off all his voters soon and do a mass infection on Easter.
How long did it take you to squeeze that one out?

Got buttwipe?
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You do realize you're using a tabloid as your source, right...?

Also, we haven't avoided the "Italian and Spanish fiasco". Google NYC.
Such a deep thinker.
"Google NYC"

You do know who to thank, don't you?

 
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Seamus

Well-Known Member
People tend to react in many different ways until they are personally affected. It is all theoretical to you until it begins to affect you and then it becomes "real".

I live just outside of NYC and it is a mess here and getting worse every day. The number of new cases is still rapidly expanding every day so until that slows down I don't understand how anyone can even begin a timeline discussion. Modeling is modeling, all based on whatever assumptions you want to make. You can make a very optimistic model or a doomsday model. The truth will come out as this plays out and until then no one knows, but no shortage of "experts" guessing.

Right now as I type this, 3 of my neighbors are quarantined and have tested positive. My mother is in her mid 80's and is in an assisted living facility. Tuesday the first man was removed from the facility, tested positive and died today. Four more removed yesterday and all now in the icu at the hospital. All residents are quarantined in their rooms. So far my mother isn't sick.

If you think this is unique to NY and just because where you live only has 2 or 3 cases you are kidding yourself. You are about 2-3 weeks away from the shit hitting the fan. You will sing a different tune when it affects the people you love. It isn't real till it is.
 

Wolfgang Faust

Well-Known Member
People tend to react in many different ways until they are personally affected. It is all theoretical to you until it begins to affect you and then it becomes "real".

I live just outside of NYC and it is a mess here and getting worse every day. The number of new cases is still rapidly expanding every day so until that slows down I don't understand how anyone can even begin a timeline discussion. Modeling is modeling, all based on whatever assumptions you want to make. You can make a very optimistic model or a doomsday model. The truth will come out as this plays out and until then no one knows, but no shortage of "experts" guessing.

Right now as I type this, 3 of my neighbors are quarantined and have tested positive. My mother is in her mid 80's and is in an assisted living facility. Tuesday the first man was removed from the facility, tested positive and died today. Four more removed yesterday and all now in the icu at the hospital. All residents are quarantined in their rooms. So far my mother isn't sick.

If you think this is unique to NY and just because where you live only has 2 or 3 cases you are kidding yourself. You are about 2-3 weeks away from the shit hitting the fan. You will sing a different tune when it affects the people you love. It isn't real till it is.
Godspeed.
I wish you, and everyone to be safe.
 

Valar Dohaeris

Well-Known Member
If you think this is unique to NY and just because where you live only has 2 or 3 cases you are kidding yourself. You are about 2-3 weeks away from the shit hitting the fan. You will sing a different tune when it affects the people you love. It isn't real till it is.
It's been real to me for about three weeks now. Again, I'm not sure who these types of comments are aimed at? The spring breakers not taking it seriously in FL?
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No one said that: they said that millions of Americans would die if no steps were taken to prevent the spread. Remedial reading might be suggested, but there are limitations to what you expect.
People have said that. Some posters on here have predicted, with girlish glee, that this will kill off as many as 2.2 million Americans because muh models.

Remedial reading 101.
 
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NoPool4Me

Well-Known Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #17
People tend to react in many different ways until they are personally affected. It is all theoretical to you until it begins to affect you and then it becomes "real".

I live just outside of NYC and it is a mess here and getting worse every day. The number of new cases is still rapidly expanding every day so until that slows down I don't understand how anyone can even begin a timeline discussion. Modeling is modeling, all based on whatever assumptions you want to make. You can make a very optimistic model or a doomsday model. The truth will come out as this plays out and until then no one knows, but no shortage of "experts" guessing.

Right now as I type this, 3 of my neighbors are quarantined and have tested positive. My mother is in her mid 80's and is in an assisted living facility. Tuesday the first man was removed from the facility, tested positive and died today. Four more removed yesterday and all now in the icu at the hospital. All residents are quarantined in their rooms. So far my mother isn't sick.

If you think this is unique to NY and just because where you live only has 2 or 3 cases you are kidding yourself. You are about 2-3 weeks away from the shit hitting the fan. You will sing a different tune when it affects the people you love. It isn't real till it is.
You are correct in that the truth will come out as this plays out. That's why I'm staying in self quarantine for another month to give time for more data to come out.

Just an fyi, my dr told me yesterday that he believes it is likely that I have covid based on my symptoms. But, he isn't concerned since I'm not obese, diabetic or with high blood pressure. It was a video appointment and he doesn't need me to come in unless I develop breathing problems. I'm not young... may be one of the older ones here, just in overall good condition. And, my last time driving was in February. I don't intend to consider driving again until we know more in about a month.

Good luck to all.

I'm in California and very concerned, but, not as much as I had been in the past.
 
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Ubertool

Member
It will take time to see how this works out. The NYC issue was started with a super spreader that was in a community outside of NYC that gave covid to 103 people. He also went to his office in NYC and his synogogue. On top of that, the orthodox community didn't shut down their schools.

Time will tell how bad this gets in the rest of the states. I'm taking the cautious side and remaining in self isolation for another month.

I also had a teleconference with my md yesterday and he says he believes it has already spread in most of our communities. I'm not saying whether or not to break quarantine. Just letting people know the original modeling may have been done incorrectly.
Damn , head to the White House with this info , you’ll be a hero
 

Invisible

Well-Known Member
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