Business predictions with coronavirus looming?

Mista T

Well-Known Member
Author
Let's hear some opinions, just for fun.

With Coronavirus hitting the states, and people starting to panic, how will that affect our 'business'?

One thought is it will decrease rides, as tourism drops and more ppl stay home.

Another thought is it will increase rides as commuters try and avoid the bus and MAX.

Note: I did not create this thread to discuss the deadlines of the virus. Just the effect on our wallets in the near term.

Thoughts?
 

MedicMan

Active Member
People are afraid. And people who are afraid make irrational choices/decisions. Uber stock is tanking along with the most other stocks. This could cost the world economy 1-2 trillion USD and could take a decade to recover. The option to use ride sharing will be driven by economics rather than health reasons. Folks who depend on ride sharing for income might be hurting for money in a few months as infections increase and fear takes over. Just my opinion.
 

crashman

New Member
Things seem to have slowed down a bit for me, but it's hard to say whether it's related to the virus. My prediction? There won't be any long-lasting effects; people still need to get out and earn a living. Many of our visitors, here in the Portland area, are business travelers. There might be a slowdown with them, but not long-term.
 

BostonTaxiDriver

Well-Known Member
Tonight, in Boston, people seemed to still be going out on a Saturday night. Some surge here and there. Not too bad even with some colleges away for spring break.

Of course, we haven't been impacted as much as the west coast yet.

Hopefully, east coasters will be able to visit the west coast and spend some $$.
 

Nerka

Active Member
I have not seem much of a difference. I think many people are avoiding public transit. It will also take a while for the economy to full go into recession. But I think many Uber drivers, especially retired older people, are not driving.
 

MedicMan

Active Member
We have hit recession territory. And there is still a long ways to go. Uber has lost over 50% of its market capitalization, Lyft has lost over 75% of its market capitalization. Most people have lost close to 30% of their investment values and there will be a lot of people who will not be working full time for close to a month. Buckle up boys and girls, the worse it yet to come. This may cause a world wide depression if this hysteria continues.

No more Moda Center
Reduced plane travel
Reduced train travel
No concerts for the next month
Limited movies for the next month as movie studios are holding back on releases
No St Paddys day events
No Convention Center events

I am predicting a 60% reduction in ride sharing over the next month. People have no idea how bad it will get.
 

crashman

New Member
I won't miss the Moda Center; it's a pain in the rear anyway.

Also, we can add to your list: Fewer rideshare drivers. In other words, some of these will cancel each other out. Fewer trips/fewer drivers. Unfortunately, this will also mean more long pickups. So I'll probably be sticking with Uber, and passing on Lyft. Lyft doesn't pay us for long pickups.
 

MedicMan

Active Member
I won't miss the Moda Center; it's a pain in the rear anyway.

Also, we can add to your list: Fewer rideshare drivers. In other words, some of these will cancel each other out. Fewer trips/fewer drivers. Unfortunately, this will also mean more long pickups. So I'll probably be sticking with Uber, and passing on Lyft. Lyft doesn't pay us for long pickups.
There will be a huge falling out of those who depend on ride sharing for their primary income. And if they are leasing or buying a car this will be a big financial issue for them. Ride sharing was never meant to be a full time job. It doesn't pay well enough to allow for that.
 

Mista T

Well-Known Member
Author
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #10
Ride sharing was never meant to be a full time job.
Actually, it was.

Here is an (2015) excerpt from the State of Oregon, a declaration from the labor dept, declaring that in their opinion, drivers are employees. Note the portion where the State recognizes that U/L have been promoting this as long term employment.

Screenshot_20200305-210315_Samsung Internet.jpg
Screenshot_20200305-210416_Samsung Internet.jpg
 

MedicMan

Active Member
Actually, it was.
This is what they say but not the long term goal. It was probably part of the business model to get as many people driving as possible in the beginning for several reasons. One is to get people used to using ride sharing, second was get enough drivers to meet the need. Once they got that in place and the market was established and part of the daily lives of many people, the goal was to become profitable. To become profitable it would require dropping pay for the drivers to become profitable. Once a company has folks depend in them they will be successful. Many drivers have attached their wagon to the ride sharing industry and now many are working and making less than minimum wage after all expenses. They have a car to pay off and a family to feed and are now stuck.

When I opened my stores I would sell stuff at a loss for months just to get folks coming in the door. They got used to us and never though about going anywhere else. Many times our competition went out of business (Jafco was one of them). After a time we would raise the prices but the customers were so used to coming in that they never noticed it. Within a year we were profitable.

Profitability is the goal of ride sharing, DUH!!!, right. To do that they have to raise fees or cut pay or a combination of both. Now that they have so many drivers that are hooked by the system they can abuse them at will. Less pay, less surge, longer pickup distances, and so on.
 

Amos69

Well-Known Member
Let's hear some opinions, just for fun.

With Coronavirus hitting the states, and people starting to panic, how will that affect our 'business'?

One thought is it will decrease rides, as tourism drops and more ppl stay home.

Another thought is it will increase rides as commuters try and avoid the bus and MAX.

Note: I did not create this thread to discuss the deadlines of the virus. Just the effect on our wallets in the near term.

Thoughts?
It will crush demand. This is a people moving business. When people stop moving......

More PT ants on the roads who are laid off from their restaurant jobs and other entry level positions. Think 40 ants for every ride.
 

crashman

New Member
It will crush demand. This is a people moving business. When people stop moving......

More PT ants on the roads who are laid off from their restaurant jobs and other entry level positions. Think 40 ants for every ride.
I think you're right; the last couple of days have been slow. The airport has been dead, and it's mainly been short rides - few and far between.
 

MedicMan

Active Member
This will filter out a lot of folks who were living on the edge with ride sharing and totally dependent on ride sharing for all or a major part of their income. I will be leaving Uber at the end of the month as my car no longer fits the criteria for Uber. I may or may not upgrade depending on the economy. If it tanks, which is my opinion, it could take years to get back to where we were. And it may be the downfall of ride sharing overall. Neither Uber nor Lyft have much cash reserves.

Uber is losing about 5 billion per quarter in good times but these times it could accelerate significantly. They have available cash of about 11.5 billion. In two quarters with significantly reduced cash flow could end Uber if investors decide they have had enough. Lyft is significantly smaller with about 1 billion in ready cash and might have a better chance if surviving.

Uber is heavy into UberEats and that could be a huge problem if this virus doesn't settle down.

Imagine a decade from now when economic students study the downfall of Uber because of a virus. It could be one future.
 

MedicMan

Active Member
Uber has lost 60% of it's market capitalization which is about 50 billion. It is worth about 40% of what it was just after the IPO.
 

Mista T

Well-Known Member
Author
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #18
Looks like this is the catalyst for the great recession of 2020. Maybe even depression.

Amazon is looking to be the big winner here, with everyone switching their routines to delivery. Whichever pharma companies put out news of possible vaccines their stocks will also spike, at least temporarily.

Thus may be the death blow for retailers on the edge of life, like JCPENNEY.
 

crashman

New Member
Business seems to have almost completely dried up in the Western suburbs. Are the rest of y'all also experiencing low/no demand?
 
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