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There is no car or truck that can "self drive" without a pilot ready today or in 10 more years, the Netherlands have a wepod joke of a bus driving by itself in selected roads (mostly straight stripes) at 30 miles an hour, so no it's not ready, if that were the goal all other companies would have been ready years ago.
The WePod is on live roads, in service, with zero human controls. So, it's right now, not in 10 years. Sure it's being limited to start, it's the first one to go live. By the end of 2020 we should have several companies offering SDC TNCs in urban areas. They too may be self limited.

Once this levee breaks, it should be a race for market share by many of the world's most powerful companies. This isn't going to be a slow rise, IMHO, it's going to be tsunami, at least as far as TNCs and truck driving goes. In my mind, the question isn't if the tsunami is coming, but when.

This race isn't slowing, it's accelerating. I'm very skeptical about 2018 but 2019-2020 is doable for introduction. 2021-2022 is probably tsunami central for TNCs. In 10 years there may be almost no human TNC drivers left.
 
Discussion starter · #22 ·
The WePod is on live roads, in service, with zero human controls. So, it's right now, not in 10 years. Sure it's being limited to start, it's the first one to go live. By the end of 2020 we should have several companies offering SDC TNCs in urban areas. They too may be self limited.

Once this levee breaks, it should be a race for market share by many of the world's most powerful companies. This isn't going to be a slow rise, IMHO, it's going to be tsunami, at least as far as TNCs and truck driving goes. In my mind, the question isn't if the tsunami is coming, but when.

This race isn't slowing, it's accelerating. I'm very skeptical about 2018 but 2019-2020 is doable for introduction. 2021-2022 is probably tsunami central for TNCs. In 10 years there may be almost no human TNC drivers left.
Like I said, The Wepod is a joke of a transportation system allowed to self drive under controlled conditions, any engineer who isn't smoking a crack pipe knows that chaotic environments tend to make ordered elements make mistakes, as long as humans drive, there won't be a single automated car out in a city ( by itself), you can always create the most insanely awesome AI to learn, one that would actually adapt to drive chaotic (like a human) and then return to normal if the conditions change, for that kind of script, you need an insane amount of processing power... a quantum computer, I'm not trying to be contrarian, just a realist.
 
The WePod is on live roads, in service, with zero human controls. So, it's right now, not in 10 years. Sure it's being limited to start, it's the first one to go live. By the end of 2020 we should have several companies offering SDC TNCs in urban areas. They too may be self limited.

Once this levee breaks, it should be a race for market share by many of the world's most powerful companies. This isn't going to be a slow rise, IMHO, it's going to be tsunami, at least as far as TNCs and truck driving goes. In my mind, the question isn't if the tsunami is coming, but when.

This race isn't slowing, it's accelerating. I'm very skeptical about 2018 but 2019-2020 is doable for introduction. 2021-2022 is probably tsunami central for TNCs. In 10 years there may be almost no human TNC drivers left.
There goes all jobs. Stimulus pay checks and being stuck in 1 place like slaves
 
According to FORD, they've b een working on this technology for the last decade! Another 5 years.....I think with their collaborative effort ( 20 + companies ) they can fully realize an autonomous vehicle by 2021. Now that's 15 years, experience. Will i ride it? maybe. Singapore I'm sure you've read is saying coming in 2018. lol.
Listen at this point, it is inconceivable to think a vehicle can comprehend control at every moment. This is not a learning or deciphering technology. It cannot tell the difference between a human or an animal crossing the rode. When it snows these vehicles will become a rode block themselves. The same rode block Uber has kept over it's investors eyes from seeing the truth. This technology for hire is at least 20 years away. I'm an Electrical engineer and believe technology is the future, but this is one that has been over hyped to appease the gods!
 
Listen at this point, it is inconceivable to think a vehicle can comprehend control at every moment. This is not a learning or deciphering technology. It cannot tell the difference between a human or an animal crossing the rode. When it snows these vehicles will become a rode block themselves. The same rode block Uber has kept over it's investors eyes from seeing the truth. This technology for hire is at least 20 years away. I'm an Electrical engineer and believe technology is the future, but this is one that has been over hyped to appease the gods!
1-3 years at most. And yes, this is a deep learning technology.
 
I'm not worried either cause it's never going to happen.
I'm still waiting on my flying car and robot maid. (the roomba isn't anywhere close to Rosie)

Just because a Dog CAN drive a car, it doesn't make it a good idea.
 
I have an entirely different reason to not worry about self-driving cars. According to renowned scientist Stephen Hawking, the earth will become uninhabitable in 100 years because of (take your pick)
  • Climate Change and Global Warming
  • Nuclear War
  • Pandemic Virus
  • Overdue Planet-killer Meteor-strike
  • Many more. That's just the top 4.
Dr. Hawking suggests the solution is to emigrate off-planet, which "isn't as fantastical as it sounds". I'll probably be safely dead by then, but if not, let's
hope he's wrong.

If it does happen then self-driving cars may be the most important thing that we leave behind. In few million years they may become self-aware and take over from where humans left off.
 
I have an entirely different reason to not worry about self-driving cars. According to renowned scientist Stephen Hawking, the earth will become uninhabitable in 100 years because of (take your pick)
  • Climate Change and Global Warming
  • Nuclear War
  • Pandemic Virus
  • Overdue Planet-killer Meteor-strike
  • Many more. That's just the top 4.
Dr. Hawking suggests the solution is to emigrate off-planet, which "isn't as fantastical as it sounds". I'll probably be safely dead by then, but if not, let's
hope he's wrong.

If it does happen then self-driving cars may be the most important thing that we leave behind. In few million years they may become self-aware and take over from where humans left off.
I see you not as optimistic as you usaully are.:eek:. Atleast you more optimistic then me cuz i actually say as early as 2030. Why? Well agree with you on that i think the 2 biggest is

-Economic collapase.
-Depleteing resources.

Just a matter if time till they "pop the bubble". We live in a time where we think its an infinit world and we can keep pumping oil,industrializeing farming and digging up rare materials. Theres a reason why china and saudi arabia are untouchable countries 1 has oil and the other makes everything and has rich minerals. America only major export is uber :rolleyes:.

It dont matter what scientist or engineers come up with cuz what late 1800s we hit a billion and in just 100 years we hit 8 billion. Theres a stress on this planet and the elietes know. With how things are going politically i belive within the next few years somethinv HUGE will happen on this planet. Depopulation agendas are in works even world energy companies say we cant go like this for long.

Its about time we start being alot more self significant and i think more and more people will move out of big cities and do things for themselves.

We see and hear SDVs going into big cities where itll be impossable for them to function right with the structure set up and traffic. Its getting obvious now that cities are turning into police states.

My optimism of nothing happening significantly is 2030 but evidence shows all over that this world with mass amount of people cant be in this much stress without something big happening for long
 
I see you not as optimistic as you usaully are.:eek:.
Actually, more optimistic. I believe that human migration to other planets is not only possible, but essential. It will require a huge commitment, but by the end of this century, that will be forced by the societal changes under discussion and the financial opportunities of exploiting off-planet resources. Undersea colonization is another possibility that may be a useful stop-gap for a century or so, but also has limits.
At least you more optimistic then me cuz i actually say as early as 2030. Why? Well agree with you on that i think the 2 biggest is

-Economic collapase.
-Depleteing resources.
Thomas Malthus wrote several widely-accepted scholarly analysis beginning in 1779, explaining how their would be widespread famine, war, and economic collapse, by the early 1800s. Yet we are still here. You may have heard about Malthus in school and how various improvements in technology and other factors that Malthus did not foresee forestalled the dire consequences he predicted. There remain today many "neo-Mathusians" that have similar predictions for similar reasons.
Just a matter if time till they "pop the bubble". We live in a time where we think its an infinit world and we can keep pumping oil,industrializeing farming and digging up rare materials.
The "bubble" has already "popped" many times, 2008 being the most recent example. The ongoing "green revolution" is reducing the demand for fossil fuels.
Theres a reason why china and saudi arabia are untouchable countries 1 has oil and the other makes everything and has rich minerals.
Both China and Saudi Arabia historically were the victims of those who profited by exploiting their resources for a long time. It is only relatively recently that both have take back control of their own destinies.
America only major export is uber :rolleyes:.
For the last century or so, America has been known as a exporter of 3 things: grain, technology, and funny ideas about human rights.
It dont matter what scientist or engineers come up with cuz what late 1800s we hit a billion and in just 100 years we hit 8 billion. Theres a stress on this planet and the elietes know. With how things are going politically i belive within the next few years somethinv HUGE will happen on this planet. Depopulation agendas are in works even world energy companies say we cant go like this for long.
Back to Malthus.
Its about time we start being alot more self significant and i think more and more people will move out of big cities and do things for themselves. We see and hear SDVs going into big cities where itll be impossable for them to function right with the structure set up and traffic.
May happen with the coming revolution in automation.
Its getting obvious now that cities are turning into police states.
Many feel that with the loss of privacy, we already live in the world predicted by the book 1984.
My optimism of nothing happening significantly is 2030 but evidence shows all over that this world with mass amount of people cant be in this much stress without something big happening for long
Time will tell.
 
The technology isn't there yet until at least 2030, I know Tesla has promised Uber to get it going by 2020 but it is doomed to fail and cause major losses for them.

The current state of AI driving is okay on paper provided some of the cars abide by the same order, this means at least 50% of the cars out there should have AI driving them, humans are chaotic, we learn and adapt then make choices, if their AI were to be anywhere near a human driver, they would need the AI to learn, what happened to the last "learning AI" that had full interaction with humans? it learned... racism.

Let's say for a second their algorithm is designed to "learn", what would happen in a place like NY? The AI will learn to be an aggressive driver, if it didn't, it would be eaten alive by human drivers, do human drivers drive aggressively all the time in NY? No, only when needed.

That is the big difference between AI and Humans.

Wtf can't post links yet.
Cab drivers do drive aggressively in Manhattan they will get in your way knowing the vast majority will stop to avoid and accident, that would mean the SDC would drive like Ahholes too. I've driven in Manhattan and the cabbies will swerve right in front of you in a dangerous manor.
 
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