After 2021 (or 2023)

Athos

Well-Known Member
The issue of self driving cars has been discussed here many times. Many posters are adamant that it won't happen soon for a variety of reasons but their kitchen-table arguments and conclusions are not shared by big money.

A Reuters article from Thursday talks about Ford and Lyft teaming up with the goal of having a workable car by 2021. GM is getting ready to launch an autonomous Bolt from a factory in Detroit. Alphabet (Waymo), RIM, Magna and probably others are moving forward as well. Uber is testing in Arizona.

With the intensity of this investment and the broad AI development in general I think it is important for drivers to think ahead a few years. Where do you want to be in 2022? I fear that whenever this starts it will come on in a rush throughout the transportation industry. There will be a glut of skilled drivers and fewer and fewer driving jobs.

If it happens in a rush and AI in other sectors reduces jobs overall our problem will be just a small beer in a very large Oktoberfest. What can you do to keep employed? How will you future-proof yourself? I post this because I think it is important for Uber drivers to start thinking about it now.

Here's a current joke: My wife just left me for a robot with a job.
 
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dmoney155

Well-Known Member
Grab that AI book and start reading. AI advancements close doors on certain jobs but open jobs on new ones. Smith got replaced by mechanics. IT jobs, engineering jobs, surgeons....are prime example of that. Gotta keep up with changes. In a short life that I've lived it does seem like these changes keep coming faster and faster though. I wonder if there is a global stress index to show how stressed out people get over the years.
 

EddyStone

Active Member
If your job can be replaced by AI it should be replaced. Humans should aspire for great things from their lives and autonomous job does not full the capacity that a person is capable of.
 

mKat

Well-Known Member
The issue of self driving cars has been discussed here many times. Many posters are adamant that it won't happen soon for a variety of reasons but their kitchen-table arguments and conclusions are not shared by big money.

A Reuters article from Thursday talks about Ford and Lyft teaming up with the goal of having a workable car by 2021. GM is getting ready to launch an autonomous Bolt from a factory in Detroit. Alphabet (Waymo), RIM, Magna and probably others are moving forward as well. Uber is testing in Arizona.

With the intensity of this investment and the broad AI development in general I think it is important for drivers to think ahead a few years. Where do you want to be in 2022? I fear that whenever this starts it will come on in a rush throughout the transportation industry. There will be a glut of skilled drivers and fewer and fewer driving jobs.

If it happens in a rush and AI in other sectors reduces jobs overall our problem will be just a small beer in a very large Oktoberfest. What can you do to keep employed? How will you future-proof yourself? I post this because I think it is important for Uber drivers to start thinking about it now.

Here's a current joke: My wife just left me for a robot with a job.
According to Actionjax we have approximately 22 more months before autonomous cars take Toronto Uber Drivers' jobs away :biggrin:
 

Lolinator

Well-Known Member
The issue of self driving cars has been discussed here many times. Many posters are adamant that it won't happen soon for a variety of reasons but their kitchen-table arguments and conclusions are not shared by big money.

A Reuters article from Thursday talks about Ford and Lyft teaming up with the goal of having a workable car by 2021. GM is getting ready to launch an autonomous Bolt from a factory in Detroit. Alphabet (Waymo), RIM, Magna and probably others are moving forward as well. Uber is testing in Arizona.

With the intensity of this investment and the broad AI development in general I think it is important for drivers to think ahead a few years. Where do you want to be in 2022? I fear that whenever this starts it will come on in a rush throughout the transportation industry. There will be a glut of skilled drivers and fewer and fewer driving jobs.

If it happens in a rush and AI in other sectors reduces jobs overall our problem will be just a small beer in a very large Oktoberfest. What can you do to keep employed? How will you future-proof yourself? I post this because I think it is important for Uber drivers to start thinking about it now.

Here's a current joke: My wife just left me for a robot with a job.
where will smith - i robot
 

i_k

Well-Known Member
There is a positive aspect to autonomous vehicles -- the roads will be a lot safer. Not having to worry about accidents caused by human error will save many lives. This brings the Trolley Problem to the forefront. How software engineers decide to tackle it is up in the air, and I think there will be plenty of pushback from the public to delay the immediate rollout of any fleet from rideshare companies until the public is satisfied with the company's ethical standards.

In the meantime, we all need to save up for the next recession once it all goes autonomous.

World Series of Poker here I come..
 

MUGATS

Well-Known Member
The issue I see is that in heavily populated areas, automated cars could grind traffic to a halt. Dealing with pedestrians takes a special set of judgement calls.

Autonomous cars will be sticklers for "the rules" when in reality, we all break driving rules every single day to keep the world moving.

On a highway? Sure 2021 sounds plausible. In high density urban centres? I severely doubt that they will be ready to interact with cyclists, pedestrians and human drivers. Unless there are dedicated lanes and massive infrastructure improvements to accommodate them.
 

Yam Digger

Well-Known Member
Dear Lord: Didnt we give this dead horse a good, sound whipping already?
The issue I see is that in heavily populated areas, automated cars could grind traffic to a halt. Dealing with pedestrians takes a special set of judgement calls.

Autonomous cars will be sticklers for "the rules" when in reality, we all break driving rules every single day to keep the world moving.

On a highway? Sure 2021 sounds plausible. In high density urban centres? I severely doubt that they will be ready to interact with cyclists, pedestrians and human drivers. Unless there are dedicated lanes and massive infrastructure improvements to accommodate them.
We don't usually see eye-to-eye on everything, but on the above statement, we certainly are in 100% agreement here.
 
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Hameed

Well-Known Member
If your job can be replaced by AI it should be replaced. Humans should aspire for great things from their lives and autonomous job does not full the capacity that a person is capable of.
I think you forgot that humans need to eat too lol. Yes they are made for bigger goals but with empty stomach what they will do
 

i_k

Well-Known Member
US Gov tables bill to fast-track autonomous vehicles

"The bill permits the deployment of up to 25,000 vehicles in its first year and 100,000 annually after that."
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/autonomous-vehicle-guidelines-united-states-1.4285223


Safety doesn't matter. Big money is pushing this. And Big Money owns Congress. Uber is over anyway.

"There is a 12-point safety checklist, but the government makes it clear that the guidelines are voluntary and not regulations."

I found that part to be troubling..
 

Athos

Well-Known Member
Yam thinks this topic has been well covered but I think it is an ongoing issue and is moving very quickly.

Paul refers to a G&M article from March about level 3 autonomous cars but from what I am reading we are almost there now. The just released Nissan Leaf, for example can do stop and go traffic and more.

Dmoney thinks new jobs will emerge to replace the old jobs but they won't be the same people and the jobs will be far fewer. A programmer replaces 10 workers.

EddyStone wants us to aspire higher and so do I but how do you do that and aspire to what? Eddystone....? Care to elaborate?

MUGATS suggests that we will see self driving cars and trucks on the highway before urban areas and that sounds right. I think there are already trucks on test routes now and the giant mining ore carriers are coming if not already here. But I think it is correct to foresee a terrible gridlock in denser urban areas. New crosswalk regulations, the distance buffer for bicycles, people standing at the edge of the sidewalk at corners, jaywalkers and more. Following the road rules strictly and dialing in a safety reserve would pretty much lock it up worse than it is now (think Yonge and Front at 7:30am).

i_k mentions the ethical dilemma but, in the final tally, would the death toll be worse than we have now? Sure situations can be created that are an ethical knot but I would think that most of the programmed decisions would be straightforward and the carnage would be reduced. As far as legal aspects are concerned there may be a few high profile deaths and payouts but the cost would be less overall and insurance rates would be lower. As a society we just might have to accept some deaths like we do with air travel, horrible as those deaths are for those victims.

We haven't heard from Karl yet and this is one of his topics. I am interested in how this will change the world of work, how it will affect the distribution of wealth and how the political forces will fight that out. Another issue is the decline of self-worth if people are paid to sit at home without meaningful activity. The psychological problems of this are not limited to personal despair and video gaming senility but, like an unruly teenager, these unanchored people may dabble in all kinds of mischief leading perhaps to a terroristic romanticism or other death cults.

I think we are on the edge of a paradigm shift the likes of which we haven't seen since the early years of the industrial revolution. Everything we read is telling us this is coming so to ignore it is not prudent and denying the obvious. Mkat seems to want a set timeline but it won't happen all at once. When driving jobs start being lost there will be a near instant glut of drivers looking for work. The neo-liberals will love this and claim it's all for the good (because it's market economics yada yada yada), but for the workers it will be a race to the bottom.

On a lighter note I have to laugh at the change that will be coming to the idea of manliness that the car has provided for so long. RAM Tough! Ha! The Vroom vroom will be replaced by a Whirr whirr. The Harley noisemakers will keep going until they can't ride though. I think you will see a lot of reactionaries like them but eventually they will die off. Maybe the roadside will be quieter in the future.
 
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